Tomlin, Buchholz set for G3 as ALDS hits Fenway
The status of this American League Division Series as it shifts to Fenway Park feels familiar. The big question is whether the end result will be a familiar one, as well.
Give the Indians credit for taking advantage of playing at home in Games 1 and 2 of this best-of-five set. But don't give them their tickets to the AL Championship Series just yet. We've got the October history between these two clubs to remind us not to assume anything going into Game 3 on Sunday (4 p.m. ET, TBS), when Clay Buchholz opposes Josh Tomlin.
Only seven times in 53 tries has a team gone down 0-2 in the Division Series and gone on to win. The 2016 Red Sox, who had a team meeting Saturday, are confident they can join that short list.
"We're the Boston Red Sox," Buchholz said. "We know how good we are and we're here for a reason."
This organization has been here before.
In the 1999 ALDS, the Indians were up, 2-0, on Boston when the series was Back Bay-bound, and the Red Sox wound up winning Games 3 and 4 at home before bringing down the Pedro Martinez relief hammer in Game 5.
In the best-of-seven 2007 ALCS, the Indians were up, 3-1, going into Game 5 at home, but they lost that one and the next two in Fenway.
So as good as this looks for Cleveland and as bleak as it appears for a Boston club trying to extend David Ortiz's Hall of Fame-worthy career, remember one thing.
"It's not over yet," Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia said. "You've got to beat us three times, not two."
The Indians are certainly aware of that.
"We can't get complacent and we're not," Tomlin said. "It's about going out there and handling our business, trying to win a game and not let them back in it. We know how good they are and so we can't get complacent and just kind of go through the motions and expect to win."
The Red Sox have more than just prideful sentiment backing them up in their belief that they can still make a series out of this. They've also got the stats.
Boston had a .300/.365/.492 slash line at home this season. That average was 36 points higher than on the road, while the on-base percentage was 33 points higher and the slugging percentage was 62 points higher.
Oh, and Big Papi, who has been basically invisible in this series so far, has a 1.125 OPS at Fenway in 156 postseason plate appearances there. Hard to imagine he doesn't still make his presence known.
Perhaps more importantly, the Indians were a fundamentally different ballclub on the road than at home. That's why they fought so hard for home-field advantage in the season's final weekend.
At home, the Tribe scored 5.58 runs per game. On the road? Just 4.06, the fourth-lowest road runs average in the Majors. The Tribe's .691 road OPS was the third-worst in the league.
"The atmosphere," Tribe manager Terry Francona acknowledged, "is going to be a little different come Sunday."
And we have officially entered the part of the program where the Indians' injury-depleted rotation is most shaky. Tomlin was demoted from the starting unit in late August, only to return in mid-September after Danny Salazar went down with a right forearm strain. Tomlin finished the season strong (a 1.75 ERA and .540 OPS against in his last 25 2/3 innings over four starts), but that doesn't totally erase the 7.96 ERA and .937 OPS against in 10 starts from July 6 through Aug. 30.
Tomlin also finished the year with a 1.9 homers-per-nine-innings mark, which was the highest of his career. That could be a Fenway factor.
Of course, Buchholz has been an awfully difficult guy to pin down in his mercurial career. And his season has been an unusual one. Back in the weeks leading up to the Trade Deadline, it appeared Buchholz might be on his way out of Boston, as he had pitched himself out of the rotation with a 5.91 ERA in his first 18 appearances. But a temporary move to the bullpen proved to be beneficial for Buchholz, and save for one rough start against the Blue Jays, he finished strong, going at least six innings and allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.
So it's not hard to draw a parallel between the two men taking the mound, and not just because they are former teammates at Angelina Junior College. Both pitched themselves into the 'pen, only to finish with a flourish when a rotation depletion called for it. And now they're entrusted with a key Game 3 assignment -- Tomlin trying to nail down an ALCS berth few predicted for the Tribe, and Buchholz trying to revive a season on the brink.
"Backs against the wall," Red Sox skipper John Farrell said. "Buchholz on the mound Sunday with an attitude of no tomorrow."
Will the Red Sox pull off a comeback reminiscent of yesteryear?
Anthony Castrovince has been a reporter for MLB.com since 2004. Read his columns and follow him on Twitter at @Castrovince. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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